Working Paper #1

Moving Beyond Counts:  An Event-Based Analytical Paradigm for Measuring Changes in Terrorist Operational Effectiveness in Time & Space

Authors:  John Hitzeman & Daniel Mabrey

Date Released:  1 July 2010

Abstract:  Incident counts are the primary unit of analysis for analyzing terrorist activities. This paper presents a new event-based analytical paradigm for measuring the operational effectiveness of terrorist organizations. Several new operational effectiveness metrics computed from event data are introduced and traditional analytical models are re-analyzed using these metrics. The paper will conclude with a discussion of how this paradigm can form the basis for detecting operational change at the group and movement level.

Recommended Citation:

Hitzeman, J.  & Mabrey, D.  “Moving Beyond Counts:  An Event-Based Analytical Paradigm for Measuring Changes in Terrorist Operational Effectiveness in Time & Space”  Institute for the Study of Violent Groups Working Paper No. 1, 2011.  http://www.isvg.org/discover/working-papers/working-paper-1, (accessed February 2011).